Dutch right-wing coalition already looks shaky

In less than three months, the Netherlands’ new right-wing coalition government has united public opinion to a rare extent: 69 per cent of voters believe it will collapse sooner rather than later. Even of those who voted for it, 54 per cent believe it won’t survive its full term.
It was always a combustible combination. Geert Wilders and his far-right Freedom Party were the big winners in the November election, taking 37 seats in the 150-seat parliament – with his closest competition, a hastily assembled alliance of the left, notching up a paltry 25.
Then came the ritual dance. Who was willing to work with the anti-Islam, anti-EU, populist – friend to Orban, Meloni and Le Pen – and who was not? For some, it was a matter of principle. For others, it was simple expediency: a choice between government and the sidelines.
In the event, the centre-right VVD under a new leader, Dilan Yesilgoz, did what her predecessor, Mark Rutte, would steadfastly have refused to do. She sealed the deal, handing Mr Wilders the support he needed to form the most right-wing government in modern Dutch history.
From there, it was simply a matter of making up the numbers. Wilders and Yesilgoz were joined by two eager fledgling parties, New Social Contract (NSC) led by campaigning former Christian Democrat, Pieter Omtzigt, and the farmer-citizen party, BBB, led by Carolien van der Plas.
Since then it’s been all downhill, as gauged in last week’s poll of 22,000 respondents by TV current affairs programme Eenvandaag, which put “honeymoon period” support for the coalition at just 39 percent.
The soap opera began with an attempt to find a prime minister to lead the coalition whose party leaders decided they would all remain on the backbenches rather than allow Mr Wilders to take the top job – a job he made clear he felt was rightly his.
After a dalliance with retired genetic scientist Ronald Plasterk, whose hopes were ended when it emerged he had not included a colleague’s name on a patent application for a cancer treatment, the job eventually went to Dick Schoof, formerly head of the security service.
Within hours it leaked that of six or seven notables, Schoof was the only one to say yes.
Then came the excruciating public hearings at which two Freedom Party ministers-designate were forced to renounce replacement theory – the conspiracy theory that a leftist “elite” is attempting to replace the white population with non-Western immigrants – in order to have their appointments confirmed by parliament.
Dry land appeared finally to be in sight last Friday when the coalition – despite being riven by tensions – was scheduled to launch a 137-page document fleshing out key policies, including its plan for the toughest ever measures against immigration.
On Wednesday however, Pieter Omtzigt – who has been at odds with Wilders’ “unconstitutional” leanings from the start – announced he was “stepping back” temporarily from politics “for health reasons”.
Thursday’s drama came from BBB leader, Carolien van der Plas, who warned she would resign as an MP if the agriculture minister – in her own government – revived a plan for compulsory farm buyouts in a reprise of the controversial Rutte policy to slash CO2 emissions. “If that happens, I’m out of here”, she declared.
Wilders, meanwhile, has been remarkably quiet, the perfect backseat driver – knowing that everyone who throws in the towel strengthens his hand.
He also knows that in the public mind at least nothing matters except immigration.
He is now preparing to push the “immigration crisis” button which will allow emergency measures and cast him in the role he likes best: champion of the people at odds with the European Union.